Monday, May 30, 2022

Frequent answers I post on Reddit

The Alcoholics Anonymous subreddit tends to get the same questions asked over and over again, so, since it’s considered rude to refer people to a FAQ (frequently asked questions with answers) here in the 2020s, here are the answers I frequently post (summary in bold)

(Last update: 2022-08-21)

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Welcome packet for someone who wants to stop drinking

We find that regular meeting makers are less likely to drink again; [multiple](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2220012/) studies [have shown](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Effectiveness_of_Alcoholics_Anonymous&oldid=978717977#Fiorentine_1999) that regular AA meeting attenders are twice as likely to get and stay sober.

Here is a starter pack for becoming part of Alcoholics Anonymous:

* Find your local A.A. website(s) - see https://www.aa.org/find-aa (Or possibly just use a web search, "aa near me" but the results might show for-profit rehabs also.)
* If your regional A.A. website lists a help line phone number or chat widget, consider calling/chatting.
* Also try the "Meeting Guide" app for Apple and Android gadgets — see https://www.aa.org/meeting-guide-app
* Since the Covid-19 pandemic, there have been many online meetings. A great resource for finding online meetings is https://aa-intergroup.org/meetings/. (Many also recommend https://www.intherooms.com - I've not used it myself, so I've no opinion.)
* Listen, listen, listen and do your best to be open minded. Try different meetings and different types of meeting to sort out which ones are the most helpful. When you're comfortable with it, introduce yourself, letting people know you're new and looking for help. For the most part, if you're a woman, look for help from the other women, men stick with the men.
* We usually suggest finding one person who has recovered to help someone new in A.A. on a one-to-one basis, a "sponsor". There's a little pamphlet that talks about this: "Questions & Answers on Sponsorship" - https://www.aa.org/questions-and-answers-sponsorship. Sponsors can often be found by showing up early at meetings (10-30 minutes early) and asking, "How can I find a sponsor?"
* If you're so inclined, start reading the 'big book' - "Alcoholics Anonymous" - https://www.aa.org/the-big-book (scroll down for access to free PDF versions of the various chapters.)

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The alcoholic rationalization machine

This is what I call the alcoholic rationalization machine. This rationalization machine will come up with any excuse to not go to meetings. Some I have seen multiple times here in Reddit:

* AA has a low success rate, based on questionable science. There was once a guy named “Agent Orange” who had an entire website about how AA doesn’t work. [It would appear he drank again](https://www.reddit.com/r/alcoholicsanonymous/comments/qwb88e/orange_papers/hl6su5j/) and [ended up homeless](https://archive.ph/vHPoq).  For the record, current science says AA works and is helpful: https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/03/alcoholics-anonymous-most-effective-path-to-alcohol-abstinence.html
* AA is a cult. Never mind very low cost (free, really) and no worship of its leaders, and easy to leave.
* People in AA are either hateful or “spiritually sick”. I had a friend who used the “everyone at the local AA Alano Club is spiritually sick” excuse to not go to meetings. He died of an overdose. Those supposedly “spiritually sick” at that Alano Club then, after he died, put his name on the wall to honor his memory.
* Men hit on women in AA. Never mind that AA has always had women-only meetings, and there are now online meetings.
* We don’t need a program to stay sober. We just need “willpower”. Never mind that the people who say this kind of nonsense usually aren’t sober themselves.
* Some idiots in AA will tell people to not take doctor prescribed medications. This is *not* the AA program; the Big Book says this: “God has abundantly supplied this world with fine doctors, psychologists, and practitioners of various kinds. Do not hesitate to take your health problems to such persons.” and an [AA-approved pamphlet](https://www.aa.org/aa-member-medications-and-other-drugs) says “No A.A. member should “play doctor”; all medical advice and treatment should come from a qualified physician”.

Point being, the alcoholic is a rationalization machine who will come up with any excuse to stop going to meetings and drink again. That rationalization machine is deadly, and it needs to be stopped.

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Suicide threat or similar content in post

Since there are indications you currently do not value your life in this posting, I take that very seriously. I can tell you that someone ready to stop drinking and change is often times in a very dark place in their life. Whether or not this has to do with drinking or drug use, *it doesn’t matter*. Here is [one resource](https://www.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/360043513931) for people feeling really bad, and here is [another resource](https://bornthisway.foundation/resources-for-help/) as well as some [self care tips](https://bornthisway.foundation/self-care-tips/).

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Atheist hung up on the “God” word

It’s God *as we understood him*, many many atheists get clean and sober in the rooms of AA, and, really, alcoholism is as deadly as cancer. If it took believing the earth is flat and the moon is made of Swiss cheese for me to stay sober, I would join the Flat Earth Society tomorrow. AA, of course, doesn’t demand anything like that.

Indeed, lots of atheists stay clean and sober in AA! Read this:

* https://www.aa.org/god-word-agnostic-and-atheist-members-aa

As per our Big Book, on page 47:

>When, therefore, we speak to you of God, we mean your own conception of God.

God can just be a group of drunks: If we do what the fellowship wants us to do, instead of what our alcoholism wants us to do, we’ll get sober.

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Loved one or friend has drinking problem

The general suggestion we give here for people with loved ones and friends suffering from alcoholism is to go to Al-Anon meetings. The subreddit is r/alanon but I think we do a disservice suggesting people stay on Reddit, since the recovery happens at a meeting, not here.

So, that in mind, here’s the Al-Anon website: https://al-anon.org/

To find an Al-Anon meeting: https://al-anon.org/al-anon-meetings/find-an-al-anon-meeting/ Like AA, Al-Anon follows tradition 4, so centralized Al-Anon doesn’t keep track of all meetings. However, regional Al-Anon chapters have their own websites, e.g. https://www.nycalanon.org/ for people in New York City.

Remember the three Cs: We didn’t **cause** it, we can’t **control** it, and we won’t **cure** it.

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I keep relapsing

First of all, I do not consider a relapse a failure. The best thing one can do after relapsing is to call up their sponsor (if they do not have a sponsor, call up their local Alano Club or AA hotline), tell them what happened, and go to a meeting as soon as they have sobered up again.

I believe every alcoholic has an AA dosage threshold below which they will relapse again. If one relapses when going to three meetings a week, go to five meetings a week. If one relapses when going to five meetings a week, go to a meeting every day. While face to face meetings are better at achieving sobriety than a virtual meeting, if it’s not possible to go to a face to face, there’s an online meeting going on right now. Check out https://aa-intergroup.org/meetings?types=24%2F7 I would give https://aahomegroup.org and https://www.319aagroup.org/ a try, both are 24/7/365 AA meetings.

I have heard stories of people who needed years of relapsing before they got clean and sober. Don’t give up before the miracle happens.

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The 12 steps in reverse

Here is the version I saw of the steps in reverse:

1. We admitted we were powerless over nothing. We could manage our lives perfectly and we could manage those of anyone else that would allow it.
2. Came to believe that there was no power greater than ourselves, and the rest of the world was insane.
3. Made a decision to have our loved ones and friends turn their wills and their lives over to our care.
4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of everyone we knew.
5. Admitted to the whole world at large the exact nature of their wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to make others straighten up and do right.
7. Demanded others to either "shape up or ship out".
8. Made a list of anyone who had ever harmed us and became willing to go to any lengths to get even with them all.
9. Got direct revenge on such people whenever possible except when to do so would cost us our own lives, or at the very least, a jail sentence.
10. Continued to take inventory of others, and when they were wrong promptly and repeatedly told them about it.
11. Sought through nagging to improve our relations with others as we couldn’t understand them at all, asking only that they knuckle under and do things our way.
12. Having had a complete physical, emotional and spiritual breakdown as a result of these steps, we tried to blame it on others and to get sympathy and pity in all our affairs.

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Psychiatric medications

Psychiatric medications are absolutely an outside issue and members of AA should not be playing doctor. From the AA Big Book:

>God has abundantly supplied this world with fine doctors, psychologists, and practitioners of various kinds. Do not hesitate to take your health problems to such persons. Most of them give freely of themselves, that their fellows may enjoy sound minds and bodies. Try to remember that though God has wrought miracles among us, we should never belittle a good doctor or psychiatrist. Their services are often indispensable in treating a newcomer and in following his case afterward.

From the pamphlet “[The A.A. Member—Medications and Other Drugs](https://www.aa.org/aa-member-medications-and-other-drugs)”

>No A.A. member should “play doctor”; all medical advice and treatment should come from a qualified physician

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When to suggest 90 in 90

I can’t speak for other people, but I myself actually only suggest 90 in 90 to chronic relapsers, or to people who are really worried they will drink or use again. I remember back when we would read “attend 90 meetings in 90 days” at meetings, in the days when my old Alano Club still had a cigarette vending machine, but I haven’t heard that at a meeting for a very long time.

The thing about 90 in 90 is this: The more meetings one goes to, the less likely a relapse is. Some people can stay clean and sober without meetings. Others need a meeting a week. Others, two or three meetings a week. And a few alcoholics really need a meeting a day to stay sober. We don’t know what the threshold is for a given alcoholic, but if the threshold looks to be a large number of meetings, I will suggest it.

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How common is the 13th step? 

It is my personal experience that, here in the 2020s, 13^th stepping is uncommon. My own experience with mixed meetings is this: Men stick with men, women stick with women, and it’s *not* OK to date a newcomer. I’ve been at fellowships where men were called out at group level for trying to pick up newcomer women.

There’s little actual scientific research in to 13^th stepping in AA. [One older survey claimed that 32% of women experience 13^th stepping, i.e. feeling pressure to have sex in AA](https://doi.org/10.1080%2F10884600305373), but that survey used questionable science (the results are from people who self-selected to answer a survey, so that percentage in survey is undoubtedly greater than real world numbers). Also, the survey is from two decades ago, long before AA came out with their [safety flyer](https://www.aa.org/safety-and-aa-flyer) and long before many AA meetings developed a culture of keeping women safe. [AA’s own literature claims that AA is a safe space for women](https://www.aa.org/women-aa). Reddit has a way of amplifying isolated incidents, and my real-world experience with AA meetings is *very* different than the impression I would get from just reading reddit.

It’s possible to avoid 13^the stepping altogether: AA has *always* had women’s meetings, and here in the post COVID-19 era, online meetings are also a viable option. Many mixed meetings do *not* have 13^th stepping issues; it’s probably worthwhile to try them out, and, as always with AA, go to a different meeting if one feels uncomfortable.

I have seen people use 13^th stepping as an excuse to not go to meetings. This can very well be the alcoholic rationalization machine at work: Any excuse to avoid an AA meeting.

The important thing is to get help and to get sober. Alcoholism is as deadly as any cancer, and [science shows](https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/03/alcoholics-anonymous-most-effective-path-to-alcohol-abstinence.html) that AA is an effective way to reduce the chance of drinking again.

More on the 13th step

This is a very touchy subject which tends to result in some pretty long drawn out discussions. I have discussed the issues with people who have gone to some of the sex-based 12-step recovery groups (SA/SAA/SCA/SLAA/etc.) and the general consensus is this:

* Getting sexually harassed at an AA meeting is not merely a resentment problem where the woman needs to work the 4^th step over it.
* It’s important to not minimize the experience some women have had with 13^th stepping in the rooms of AA, or to imply it’s a woman’s fault when 13^th stepped.
* Men who try to 13^th step women should be told their behavior is unacceptable, and to go to a sex-based recovery group to deal with stopping that behavior. If a man refuses to stop the behavior, they should be asked to only go to men’s meetings, and to not interact with women in Alano clubs.
* A few fellowships, even here in the 2020s, still try to ignore the 13^th step problem. Since each AA group is autonomous as per the 4^th tradition, centralized AA can not wave a wand and fix those fellowships. The only viable solution in cases like that is to go to other meetings and/or start up a new meeting. I have suggested and continue to suggest to people in dysfunctional fellowships to contact local churches to see who will host a women’s meeting.
* A lot of people with anti-AA agendas and with resentments against the program of AA attempt to amplifly 13^th step concerns as part of a bad faith attack against the AA program. This is not arguing in good faith.
* Naturally, men get 13^th stepped too, but the primary source of most problematic behavior appears to be men trying to date newcomer women.
* Oldtimers suggest not getting in to a relationship in early sobriety, and most oldtimers (including myself) frown on someone with time in the program dating a newcomer.
* I want to let the alcoholic still suffering know that 13^th stepping is uncommon enough here in the 2020s that it’s worthwhile for women to try out local face to face meetings as part of the process of overcoming alcoholism. Please do not use allegations of 13^th stepping on reddit as an excuse to not try out a face to face meeting.

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Moderate drinking doesn’t work

Maybe you can drink moderately. I know I, being the kind of alcoholic I am, *can’t*.

Moderate drinking for an alcoholic of my type is a [fool’s errand](https://elplatt.com/return-moderate-drinking-still-lie), but it’s hard for an alcoholic of my type to admit that. As per the Big Book:

>The idea that somehow, someday he will control and enjoy his drinking is the great obsession of every abnormal drinker. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. Many pursue it into the gates of insanity or death.

>We learned that we had to fully concede to our innermost selves that we were alcoholics. This is the first step in recovery. The delusion that we are like other people, or presently may be, has to be smashed.

Notably, I do not know of one scientific study showing successful long term moderate drinking among alcoholics; the few times we have had long term followups, tries at moderate drinking have been a disaster.  For example, there was a study in the 1970s showing alcoholics successfully moderately drinking, but, by the early 1980s, [only possibly one person in that study was still successfully moderately drinking](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.7089552) (Non paywalled summaries of Pendery 1982 from that era: https://archive.ph/q6c7b https://archive.ph/84l4z Note that the Sobells were ultimately cleared of wrongdoing, but their research was considered very sloppy)

Alcoholics Anonymous, on the other hand, has been shown to successfully keep alcoholics sober long term. One study shows members of AA successfully sober [16 year later](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2220012/).

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More on moderate drinking

For me to believe anything besides abstinence works for an alcoholic of my type over the long term, I need a study which does the following two things:

* The study shows *long-term* moderate drinking among alcoholics. I want an eight year follow-up, because there *is* a study out there showing AA still works [16 years later](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2220012/)
* The study is *not* based on self reporting data, but uses collaterals (usually, loved ones) and maybe alcohol testing to verify the supposed “moderate” drinker is, in fact, moderately drinking. One example of moderate drinkers lying about their drinking is Graber and Miller 1988, DOI 10.1037/h0080474, where the “moderate” drinkers claimed to be drinking less, but their loved ones/collaterals said they were actually drinking a lot more than they claimed to be drinking. And, of course, [Audrey Kishline’s story](https://old.reddit.com/r/alcoholicsanonymous/comments/uvgw1z/my_neighbor_walked_in_late_to_my_first_meeting/i9ljb21/) is a famous example of an alcoholic trying and failing at long term moderation, killing two innocent people in the process.

I’m old enough to remember [Pendery 1982](https://defendingaa.blogspot.com/2018/12/some-history-behing-pendery-1982.html) all too well, and I haven’t seen solid science showing alcoholics engaging in long-term moderate drinking since then. Moderate drinking for alcoholics, as far as I can tell, is still a [fool’s errand](https://elplatt.com/return-moderate-drinking-still-lie)—but many alcoholics will go to great amounts of rationalization to believe it can work.

I’ve looked at Henssler 2021 and I’m not impressed:

* There were only *two* studies which looked at results for longer than two years
* The combined N of those two studies was under 100 (Cochrane 2020 had, as a point of comparison, 952 subjects at the three-year follow-up).
* One of the two longer-term studies used the same subjects used in Pendery 1982. Any data about the subjects in Pendery 1982 engaging in long-term moderate drinking is obviously incorrect, but Henssler 2021 includes the very same subjects as seen in Pendery 1982 to argue for long-term moderate drinking.
* The other longer-term study is Graber and Miller 1988. As far as I can tell, it *appears* that the Henssler et al. meta-study took the “moderate” drinkers word for how much they were drinking, even though people who observed the “moderate” drinkers drinking saw a lot more drinking than what the moderate drinkers self-reported.

While I haven’t looked at the short-term moderate drinking data in Henssler 2021, I will concede that they could very well have seen, with a low standard deviation and resulting P value, people trying moderate drinking able to moderately drink for two years—but that’s *not* evidence that moderate drinking is a viable long-term strategy for alcoholics.

AA is not a cult

Alcoholics Anonymous is not a cult:
 
* No membership dues or fees. 7^th tradition is optional; the only literature someone may be suggested to buy is the Big Book, 12x12, *maybe* a study guide for the Big Book. Well under $100 total, and the first 164 pages of the Big Book along with some study guides is not under copyright in the US and is readily available for free online.
* No cult of personality. Bill Wilson and Doctor Bob have been dead for well over half a century, and aren’t discussed very often in meetings nor are a significant part of the AA program.
* Easy to leave. If you want to leave, there door is right there. If the drinking gets bad enough and you want to stop drinking for good, the door of AA will always welcome you.
* Evidence based and effective. https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/03/alcoholics-anonymous-most-effective-path-to-alcohol-abstinence.html It works, it really does.

In my experience, people who claim AA is a cult are people who are still actively drinking or using (e.g. using the Marijuana Maintenance Program or what not), and don’t like being told that we suggest abstinence in this program. Every time I go through the posting history of someone claiming AA is a cult, I either find a short posting history, or I find postings where they talk about their pot smoking and/or “controlled” drinking.

See also: [This more in depth discussion about why AA is *not* a cult](https://reddit.com/r/cults/comments/fi511a/is_aa_a_cult/)

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Sex/love addiction support

In the spirit of cooperation with other 12-step programs, there are multiple love and/or sex addiction 12-step programs:
 
* [Sexaholics Anonymous](https://www.sa.org/), for married people with porn and/or infidelity problems
* [Sex Addicts Anonymous](https://saa-recovery.org/), for people with a wide variety of sexual addiction issues (porn, infidelity, emotionally damaging hook-ups, etc.)
* [Sexual Compulsives Anonymous](https://sca-recovery.org/)
* [Sex and Love Addicts](https://slaafws.org/) for people with a wide variety of different sex, love, or romantic/sexual fantasy addiction problems
* [Codependents Anonymous](https://coda.org/) for people with co-dependency issues.

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Am I an alcoholic?

Alcoholism is a disease which tells us we do not have a disease, that our drinking is normal and alright.

Here is a self-assessment tool: https://www.aa.org/self-assessment

It doesn’t matter how much you drink. If you have a desire to stop drinking, you are welcome to attend any AA meeting. To try out a meeting, there is an online meeting happening right now: https://www.319aagroup.org/ and https://aahomegroup.org/

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Using marijuana or other intoxicants

First of all, you are always welcome in the rooms of AA, since the only requirement for membership is a desire to stop drinking.

The reason people get all bent out of shape over “California sobriety” is because we alcoholics have an alcoholic rationalization machine, and we have a tendency to become very dishonest with ourselves and dishonest with others when it comes to consuming intoxicants like marijuana.  

Many—probably most—alcoholics in the program only take medication as prescribed, are honest with their doctor about their addiction condition, and do not get prescriptions from multiple doctors.

The AA conference approved mini-book “Living Sober” recommends we avoid intoxicating drugs, regardless of whether or not they are legal:

>So we go to great lengths to avoid all street drugs—marijuana, "crank," "downers," "uppers," cocaine, "hash," hallucinogens, "speed" — and even many over-the-counter pills and nostrums, as well as tranquilizers.

The only reason we don’t bring them up in the Big Book is because any drug use was socially unacceptable, and there was a huge stigma associated with drugs that AA understandably wanted to avoid until drugs became acceptable in the mid-1960s (read: *After* the Big Book and *after* the 12x12).

A lot of people, including myself, consider marijuana and other intoxicant abuse a relapse, but, then again, I don’t think a relapse is a failure; I think it can be a step in the right direction. Someone who relapses once every 30 days is doing a lot better than someone who drinks every day.

Sobriety is a process, not a destination. I had a lot of non-drinking issues after I stopped drinking in the rooms of AA, and I discovered—a process which took far too long—that the program as written in the first 164 pages of the Big Book greatly helps me, no matter what it is that is that is making me irritable, restless, and discontented (Drugs/Gambling addiction/overeating/sex addictions/resentments/fear/etc).

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Psychedelics

https://www.psychiatry.org/getattachment/d5c13619-ca1f-491f-a7a8-b7141c800904/Position-Use-of-Psychedelic-Empathogenic-Agents.pdf

“There is currently inadequate scientific evidence for endorsing the use of psychedelics to treat any psychiatric disorder”

 

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Online meetings

There’s an online meeting going on right now. Check out https://aa-intergroup.org/meetings?types=24%2F7 I would give https://aahomegroup.org and https://www.319aagroup.org/ a try, both are 24/7/365 AA meetings.

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Confrontational drug users

It is my general observation and experience that people still using intoxicants are rather irritable, restless, and discontented. One manifestation of this discontent is that they become rather confrontational when called out on their drug use. It’s not possible to reason with such people; they will not stop abusing drugs until they reach bottom or die -- sadly, many drug users would rather die in their addiction then acknowledge their behavior is wrong and get better. Here on Reddit, it is best for me not to waste my time engaging with such people; I instead say a prayer for them, block them, and move on.

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Rebuttal to Filtermag criticism of Cochrane 2020

Stanton Peele’s criticism of AA has not been published in a medical journal, much less underwent the extensive peer review the Cochrane 2020 report on Alcoholics Anonymous has. Indeed, Filtermag is an openly biased non-mainstream source. If Peele found a real issue with Alcoholics Anonymous, why didn’t he write a letter or submit an article to a medical journal? 

There are several reasons why these arguments would not pass muster to get published in a mainstream scientific journal.

Peele claimed that AA overall doesn’t help alcoholics, since, while AA does increase abstinence, Peele alleged that it does not decrease overall percentage of drinking days and other measures of alcoholism severity. Nick Heather echoed this claim, attributing it to Peele, when writing a letter criticizing the Cochrane Review. Here is [the response to Heather from one of the Cochrane writers](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8243271/):

>It should be remembered also, that DDD [Drinks per drinking day] and alcohol-related consequences are averages based solely on those individuals who actually drank at all [...] while more individuals in AA/TSF achieved continuous abstinence, those who were not completely abstinent did not drink more heavily, drink more frequently or experience more alcohol-related consequence

Peele mentions that it’s only at the one year mark we see an increase in abstinence large enough to be very statistically significant (i.e. have a low P value). The reason for this is because the only study with enough subjects to decrease the standard deviation and resulting P value was the 1990s Match study at the one-year followup. Studies, including the Match one, show similar increases in abstinence at other time points, but with fewer subjects. There’s no reason to believe the results would be different if we had as many subjects as we do at the one-year mark, but we cannot get a low enough P with the number of subjects we have to consider the data except at the one-year mark, by Cochrane standards, “high certainty” evidence.

He then claims it was a “self selecting” population, but all of the studies used randomization of subjects. He then continues to build up a straw man about Cochrane 2020: He claims they only used two studies to show manualized AA-based TSF treatment has better abstinent outcomes, but pages 88 and 89 of the actual Cochrane review show six different studies, all showing better results for therapies which get people in the rooms of AA. Then he claims the Cochrane review shows higher drinking intensity, but page 92 shows that it’s only a single study (McCrady 1996, with a P value of 0.07 which is considered low-quality evidence) which saw a higher percentage of days heavy drinking, while two other studies show either the same number of days of heavy drinking, or a slight improvement for AA-based treatments.

One Brandon Bergman who helped with the research for the 2020 Cochrane review of AA also has [posted a rebuttal to Peele’s article](https://twitter.com/brandonbphd/status/1240531277884899328).

Alcoholics Anonymous works for some alcoholics. The fact that there has been, in the last two years, no serious science refuting the Cochrane 2020 review shows just how solid that review is.

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I need a friend in AA

One place to share is at a meeting of Alcoholics Anonymous. It’s required to have a desire to stop drinking: AA can not help and is not for people who want to continue drinking.

There’s a Zoom meeting going on right now. Check out https://aa-intergroup.org/meetings?types=24%2F7 I would give https://aahomegroup.org and https://www.319aagroup.org/ a try, both are 24/7/365 AA meetings.

Some guidelines:

* You need to raise your hand in a Zoom meeting
* Then, there is a wait before you will be able to share
* Once your share starts, it is timed. Only 3-5 minutes of sharing is allowed, so that others may share.
* If multiple shares are desired, just raise your hand multiple times.
* Science shows that regular attenders of AA meetings are much less likely to drink again.

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Why do you beat the drum for AA so much?

I have seen countless people in the rooms decide they don’t need AA anymore, drink again, and then come back to the room with their tail between their legs, telling people they relapsed after no longer going to AA.

That’s not the only story I have of someone who left the rooms of AA. I had a good friend in AA. Smart kid, needing a father figure, good with computers, good looking, popular with all the girls. He had these big handsome eyes which melted countless girls’ hearts; I can still close my eyes and visualize them. He decided to stop going to AA. Decided we were all “spiritually sick” or some such—it was the alcoholic rationalization machine in overdrive. Went out again. Overdosed. Died. Didn’t even live to see his 30^th birthday. Those “spiritually sick” people at the local Alano Club then put his picture on the wall, mentioned he died, and even still have his name on the wall. He’s not the only one I have seen go out and die young.

I hate rigid ideology. I despise “my way or the high way” philosophies of life. The reason why I’m like, hey be careful when seeing someone talk about no longer going to meetings is not because I think we have some kind of monopoly on sobriety or the truth or what not. I get jittery because I have had friends stop going to meetings, go out again, and die. I agree that only happens to *some* people who stop going to meetings, but considering how deadly the consequences can be for someone who can not stay sober outside the meetings, I urge caution with leaving meetings.

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AA solves worrying about drug tests 

The nice thing about being clean and sober is that I don’t have to worry about taking drug tests. If you want to try and cheat the system and continue to drink and/or abuse drugs, well, there’s no way to cheat out of the negative consequences of drinking and drugging.

When you’re ready to be clean and sober and find a wonderful new way of living, happy, joyous, and free, we have a way that works for us.

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Do I need to contact someone who abused me when making amends

Childhood abuse (e.g. sexual molestation) and abusive relationships is a very different kettle of fish than the kinds of amends the Big Book has in pages 76-83; the only amend the Big Book mentions with an ex is a situation where money was involved. The Big Book does not deal with victims of child molestation or similar situations *at all*, so there is no requirement in the program to contact abusers.

Page 83 of the 12x12 says that, with amends, sometimes “by the very nature of the situation, we shall never be able to make direct personal contact at all.” [Professional domestic abuse guides say we should not contact an abuser when making amends.](https://www.dhs.state.il.us/page.aspx?item=38492) *A Program For You*, which is an excellent guide to doing the program as written in the Big Book, says this:

>[The amends list] of course, does not include sexual abuse—any sexual behavior that was forced on you against your will, either as a child or as an adult. As with any abuse you may have suffered, it is important to feel your anger and not fault yourself.

Point being, when we have been abused, *the Big Book does not say we have to make an amend to the person in question*. If no money is owed, and if the person is no longer in our life, the Big Book does not provide hard and fast rules.

My experience is this: No contact, say a prayer for the person. It will harm the abusive person to attempt to contact them again, since enabling their abuse—and even contact for an “amend” can enable abuse—is harmful. Likewise, with a relationship which has gone so bad that we no longer contact the person *at all*, it can very well harm the other person to initiate any kind of contact with them again, and the Big Book does not mention contact with exes (unless we owe them money). My experience is the best amend is no contact whatsoever, and to say a prayer for the person in question.

---

The Big Book is outdated

There’s this thing alcoholics have, it’s what I call the alcoholic rationalization machine. This rationalization machine will do anything and everything to move away from meetings, move away from a program of recovery (with, yes, a [proven track record](https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/03/alcoholics-anonymous-most-effective-path-to-alcohol-abstinence.html)), and move back to drinking.

Over the years, I have seen alcoholics rationalize taking the next drink, and I have seen some (probably a loudspoken minority of) doctors and scientists enabling the lies an alcoholic tells themselves.

In the 1970s, it was the Sobell study which claimed an alcoholic of my type could drink again. By 1982, [those alcoholics supposedly engaging in “controlled drinking” were either dead, abstinent, or engaging in out of control drinking](https://archive.ph/84l4z)[1]. In the 1990s, one Audrey Kishline started a group called “Moderation Management” and even published a book telling alcoholics how they could control and manage their drinking. Within 10 years of writing that book, Kishline was no longer able to moderate her drinking, and ended up [killing two innocent people in a drunk driving accident](https://people.com/archive/under-the-influence-vol-54-no-3/).

So, here we see two attempts to write a “new” book which contradicts the following passages from pages 30 and 31 of the Big Book:

> The idea that somehow, someday he will control and enjoy his drinking is the great obsession of every abnormal drinker. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. Many pursue it into the gates of insanity or death.

[...]

>Despite all we can say, many who are real alcoholics are not going to believe they are in that class. By every form of self-deception and experimentation, they will try to prove themselves exceptions to the rule, therefore nonalcoholic. If anyone who is showing inability to control his drinking can do the right- about-face and drink like a gentleman, our hats are off to him. Heaven knows, we have tried hard enough and long enough to drink like other people!

Point being, I don’t think we need a new book. Not when some doctors and scientists still, in vain, keep pursuing the [fool’s errand of trying to make an alcoholic moderately drink again](https://elplatt.com/return-moderate-drinking-still-lie).

[1] For the record, the Sobells were cleared of deliberate fraud. But the investigation concluded their scientific methodology was very sloppy. 

--

AA has a 5% success rate

AA has a [42% success rate, according to science from the 2020s](https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/815097806/new-review-finds-alcoholics-anonymous-is-effective-but-not-for-everyone)

>what it found was that **42% of AA participants were completely abstinent one year** compared with 35 who underwent only the professional treatments like cognitive behavioral therapy

(emphasis mine)

The myth of a 5% success rate does not come from any scientific peer reviewed paper. Instead, it comes from three very questionable sources:

* One is a 1990 survey of AA membership. It included a graph which was poorly labeled and confusing to read. People misread it, and thought it showed a 5% “success rate”, when, in fact, [the graph shows a 26% one-year retention rate (PDF file)](http://ieji.org/wiki/_media/doc/recout01.pdf)
* The other big source for the 5% figure comes from a 2014 book by Lance Dodes, The Sober Truth. What Lance Dodes did was look at a then 34-year-old study (and not the 8-year-old [Moos and Moos 2006](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2220012/) study he was aware of—he mentions it elsewhere—but which has better numbers for AA success) and decide only people who both had 2.5 years or more sober and were still regularly attending AA were a “success”. Sober, but not regularly going to AA, not a “success”. Regularly going to AA, but only 2 years sober, also not a “success”. Rather disingenuous on Dodes’s part if you ask me, especially since Dodes ignored the fact that 1980 study showed that, the more people went to AA, the more likely they would be sober (e.g. 42% of regular AA attenders were sober one year or more in the graph Dodes used to calculate his 5% figure, compared to 16% for people who never went to AA). [Other alcoholism treatment experts rejected Dodes’s figures when the book came out](https://www.wbur.org/news/2014/04/07/defense-12-step-addiction)
* Agent orange, who, for the record, appears to have [drank again](https://www.reddit.com/r/alcoholicsanonymous/comments/qwb88e/orange_papers/hl6su5j/) and [ended up homeless](https://archive.ph/vHPoq). The green-papers site from the same era as the “Agent Orange” site refuted it quite nicely: http://web.archive.org/web/20150329052802/http://green-papers.org/ “95% of patients had relapsed at some time during the study, even though many of these eventually attained sobriety. [...] It's well known that most severe alcoholics only get sober after many relapses, to the extent that relapses can be considered part of the recovery process. So don't pretend that's a failure. [...] And anyway, this was a study of a health network, not AA.”

The fact of the matter is this: We find that regular meeting makers are less likely to drink again; [multiple](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2220012/) studies [have shown](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Effectiveness_of_Alcoholics_Anonymous&oldid=978717977#Fiorentine_1999) that regular AA meeting attenders are twice as likely to get and stay sober.

---

12 Things about AA

  1. A.A. is not for everyone, but it seems to work for those who want it.
  2. The traditions didn't happen by accident, and they're pretty amazing.
  3. You're absolutely welcome to attend an open or closed meeting, if you have a desire to stop drinking.
  4. The first step doesn't need to be qualified or justified. Losing things is not required. If you can't control and enjoy your drinking at the same time, BINGO!
  5. If you start drinking again, it's not ideal, but it isn't a moral failing.
  6. A.A. is full of people deeply affected by the disease of alcoholism. "We are not saints" is a profound understatement.
  7. The preamble, read before every meeting, answers a lot of questions.
  8. There is no time limit for working the steps, but you probably shouldn't delay.
  9. Everybody's sponsor in A.A. is in A.A. for a reason. (See #6)
  10. If you believe this program can help, don't drink, and follow the suggestions to the best of your ability, that's the program in a nutshell.
  11. Membership in A.A. doesn't bestow one with a medical or social work degree.
  12. A.A. isn't going to solve all your problems, but it shouldn't make any of them worse.

 [Source](https://old.reddit.com/r/alcoholicsanonymous/comments/y48ym5/12_things_about_aa_for_those_interested_or/)

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Response to “Does Alcoholics Anonymous Work” published by The Conversation

I came across an article which criticizes AA using the in my opinion now-debunked 2014 book by Dodes. I have already dealt with why the Dodes’ figures are suspect in previous blog entries, but to summarize: The figures have been, in my opinion, downright discredited in Cochrane 2020’s report on AA efficacy.

One thing that article does is point to a study which “proves” that alcoholics can control and moderate their drinking. One thing to keep in mind is that while it’s pretty easy to find a study which shows that out-of-control alcoholics claim they are controlling their drinking, those studies are generally short term and based on self-reported data. The last time we had a real long-term study was the 10-year follow-up in Pendery 1982, a famous (if old) study showing that alcoholics do not successfully control and moderate their drinking over a long time period.

But, interested, I looked at this meta-study supposedly showing controlled drinking among alcoholics. This meta-study included studies going back to the 1970s. Most of the studies had only short-term follow-ups; there were only two studies with follow-ups longer than two years.

Diving deeper, I looked at the two studies with a final follow-up longer than two years used to support the idea that an alcoholic can control and enjoy his drinking:

  • One study with a 3.5 year follow up is Graber et. al. 1988 [1]. N=24 (which is a much lower N than the studies used to support Cochrane 2020) Looking at the study, I observed that while the supposed “controlled drinkers” claimed to be drinking less than the group told to abstain from alcohol, the collaterals (usually, the drinker’s loved ones) reported that the “controlled drinkers” were actually drinking a lot more than the abstinent group: Self-reported data among the abstinent group was 21 drinks a week (collaterals reported less); collaterals reported nearly 41 drinks a week for the controlled drinking group (self-reporting was a good deal lower).

  • The other study they used was from back in the 1970s: Caddy et. al. 1978 [2]. I started reading this study before metaphorically throwing it across the room. It looks at alcoholics in the infamous Sobell 1973 study. The very same alcoholics they looked at in Pendery 1982! (To be pedantic, Pendery 1982 only looked at the 20 alcoholics in the controlled drinking experimental group, while Caddy 1978 looked at all 70 subjects across four groups, but still) At this point, I stopped bothering to read the meta-study.

We know exactly what happened to that very same CD-E (experimental controlled drinking) group of 20 alcoholics 10 years later: They weren’t controlling and enjoying their drinking! (4 dead, 8 out-of-control drinking, 6 abstinent, 1 moderately drinking, 1 not located) Despite this, the meta-study, without even mentioning the existence of Pendery 1982, claimed this study showed the controlled drinking group did better than the abstinent group. I can not take seriously a meta-study which uses data based on those 20 people in Pendery 1982 to argue an alcoholic can control and enjoy his drinking.

If we throw out the data based on the subjects in Pendery 1982, we are left either with studies whose final follow-up is at most two years after treatment, or with the all of 24 subjects in Graber et. al. 1988 where the “moderate drinking” (“controlled drinking” as they called it back then) group was apparently drinking a good deal more than the abstinent group, and were, based on their collaterals, being more dishonest about their drinking.

In terms of the N used for long term follow-ups, as a point of comparison, the Match study used by the Cochrane group in their 2020 AA report had, at the three year follow-up, 952 subjects.

To address the rest of that article, to use Dodes’ questionable figures to conclude AA has a low success rate, and then compare that to a figure that, as it turns out, considers 12-step fellowships a part of mainstream treatment to imply AA isn’t “mainstream treatment” is straight up bad science.  [3] The article tries really hard to downplay the results of Cochrane’s 2020 report on Alcoholics Anonymous: After claiming TSF (which, yes, gets people in the rooms of AA where the real recovery starts) isn’t more effective than other treatments, the article finally contradicts itself in the next sentence by conceding that 12-step oriented therapies increase abstinence, but hedges this by stating “the goal of 12-step facilitation therapy is always abstinence, while other therapies may support a goal of controlled drinking or harm reduction for some heavy and dependent drinkers”; never mind that the article wasn’t able to provide a compelling case that controlled drinking is a workable long-term solution for alcoholics (it isn’t, as I already detailed earlier in this post). Did I mention that this article doesn’t even try to address the multiple observational studies showing that regular AA meeting attenders are twice as likely to get and stay sober?

(I originally posted this on Reddit)

[1] “Abstinence or controlled drinking goals for problem drinkers: A randomized clinical trial” 1988

[2] “Individualized behavior therapy for alcoholics: a third year independent double-blind follow-up” 1978

 [3] The science in that article gets worse. The article links to AA’s 2014 membership survey pamphlet stating that, since 27% of people in the survey are in their first year, this shows a 73% relapse rate. Actually, what the pamphlet shows is that 27% of members are in their first year, and 73% have one year or more sober—quite the opposite of a 73% relapse rate. Like I said, bad science.

Thursday, April 14, 2022

All those anti-AA websites? They’re offline

 Back in the mid-2010s, there were a number of anti-AA websites online:

The sites all have one thing in common here in 2022: They are all down. The first two sites have been bought out by cyber squatters, and the orange-papers site does not even resolve, much less display a web page. Indeed, all of these sites were down when the 2020 Cochrane report on AA came out in March of 2020, so they certainly have not addressed the scientific evidence -- make that scientific consensus -- that Alcoholics Anonymous helps people get and stay sober.

Also, there are unproven allegations supposedly from people who personally knew the owner of the Orange Papers domain that he drank again. While these allegations can not be proven, they are consistent with the kind of attitude Orange had towards AA back when his site was live.

The fact that none of the owners of those websites was able to keep their site up long-term indicates they didn’t have their stuff together. I don’t want what they had.

I wish the owners of all of these sites well. In particular, back when the owner of morerevealed.com was still online, many years ago, I told him back then he was in my prayers. The door of AA is open for them if they want to get sober in the program, and regardless I hope they are OK.

The AA website, of course, is up and alive and well:

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

In response to Stanton Peele’s FilterMag criticism of Cochrane 2020

I initially ignored this article, since it was published by one FilterMag, not a particularly mainstream magazine, and one which a fellow Wikipedia editor calls “an openly biased source advocating harm-reduction.”  However, since I’m starting to see this article being used as an attempt to “refute” the Cochrane 2020 review of AA, it is time to address this.

Stanton Peele has a long-standing opposition to AA and rejection of any science showing AA efficacy, posting anti-AA screeds more than 30 years ago and claiming that chronic alcoholics can drink moderately again despite the scientific evidence showing that to be a fool’s errand. Hardly an objective dispassionate source.

Compare this to the peer-reviewed prestigious Cochrane 2020 report on AA. The Cochrane Library is considered by the Wikipedia community to be “generally of high quality” and their 2020 report on AA is an exemplary example of their excellent scientific rigor.

This attempt to refute Cochrane 2020’s report on AA is really really bad.  

Peele claimed that AA overall doesn’t help alcoholics, since, while AA does increase abstinence, Peele alleged that it does not decrease overall percentage of drinking days and other measures of what I would call alcoholism severity. Nick Heather echoed this claim, attributing it to Peele, when writing a letter criticizing the Cochrane Review. Here is the response to Heather from one of the Cochrane writers:

It should be remembered also, that DDD [Drinks per drinking day] and alcohol-related consequences are averages based solely on those individuals who actually drank at all [...] while more individuals in AA/TSF achieved continuous abstinence, those who were not completely abstinent did not drink more heavily, drink more frequently or experience more alcohol-related consequence

Peele mentions that it’s only at the one year mark we see an increase in abstinence large enough to be very statistically significant (i.e. have a low P value). The reason for this is because the only study with enough subjects to decrease the standard deviation and resulting P value was the 1990s Match study at the one-year followup. Studies, including the Match one, show similar increases in abstinence at other time points, but with fewer subjects. There’s no reason to believe the results would be different if we had as many subjects as we do at the one-year mark, but we cannot get a low enough P with the number of subjects we have to consider the data except at the one-year mark, by Cochrane standards, “high certainty” evidence. [1]

Peele also claims there were not any “reliable” studies showing AA effectiveness in the mid-2000s.  Never mind that we had Moos and Moos 2006 and Fiorentine 1999 which showed a strong correlation between abstinence and regular AA attendance, not to mention Project MATCH which should AA was just as effective as psychotherapy (and whose raw data shows greater abstinence among people directed to go to AA meetings).

He then claims it was a “self selecting” population, but all of the studies used randomization of subjects. He then continues to build up a straw man about Cochrane 2020: He claims they only used two studies to show manualized AA-based TSF treatment has better abstinent outcomes, but pages 88 and 89 of the actual Cochrane review show six different studies, all showing better results for therapies which get people in the rooms of AA. Then he claims the Cochrane review shows higher drinking intensity, but page 92 shows that it’s only a single study (McCrady 1996) which saw a higher percentage of days heavy drinking, while two other studies show either the same number of days of heavy drinking, or a slight improvement for AA-based treatments. The idea that there is an “abstinence violation effect”, that since drinks per day and what not are the same between AA-assigned and non-AA-assigned subjects, and the false allegation this indicates AA attenders who still drink have worse drinking consequences has been addressed above.

He then links to studies which did not pass the muster to be part of Cochrane 2020. I can do that too: Moos and Moos 2006, which shows a 67% 16-year success rate for Alcoholics Anonymous. He then complains that the studies only pick good subjects, which isn’t true: The studies pick subjects who only have alcoholism because, you know, AA is not a program for treating mental illness; it’s a program for treating alcoholism.

One Brandon Bergman who helped with the research for the 2020 Cochrane review of AA also has posted a rebuttal to Peele’s article.

Alcoholics Anonymous works for some alcoholics. The fact that there has been, in the last two years, no serious science refuting the Cochrane 2020 review shows just how solid that review is.

[1] See the graph on page 89 of the Cochrane review.

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

The bogus 5% success rate

Recently, someone asked how the “5% success rate” stat was made up. Here is my answer, edited to give more information and context.

To summarize, the real success rate, based on current science and randomized high quality studies, is 42%. The 5% stat has been discredited. There’s actually two primary places the discredited number comes from, as well as a third figure which I haven’t seen used for a long time.

For people who have long since forgotten their math, a numerator is the number we divide (the top of a fraction); the denominator is the amount we divide by (the bottom of a fraction). For example, 3/4 (.75 or 75%) has a numerator of three and a denominator of four.

The 1990 Triennial Survey

One is a 1990 survey of AA membership. It included a graph which was poorly labeled and confusing to read. People misread it, and thought it showed a 5% “success rate”, when, in fact, the graph shows a 26% one-year retention rate (PDF file).

Don McIntire, in a 2000 paper entitled “How Well Does A.A. Work?”, claimed, without evidence, that there was a 81% first month dropout rate, and that “at the end of 90 days, only 10% of newcomers are still present”. [1] This, despite the fact the original triennial survey directly contradicts him, stating that “about half those who come to A.A. are gone within three months.” There is nothing in the original 1990 triennial survey discussing an 81% one-month dropout rate; the number appears to come from people who didn't understand the graph and decided that's what it showed without any thought of how AA was supposed to measure the people who dropped out in their first month, since AA doesn't keep membership records nor meeting attendance records.

The actual numerator was the number of alcoholics in their 12th month sober; the denominator was all the alcoholics in their first year in the survey.

The Sober Truth

The other big source for the 5% figure comes from a 2014 book by Lance Dodes, The Sober Truth. What Lance Dodes did was look at a then 34-year-old study (and not the 8-year-old Moos and Moos 2006 study he was aware of—he mentions it elsewhere—but which has better numbers for AA success) and decide only people who both had 2.5 years or more sober and were still regularly attending AA were a “success”. Sober, but not regularly going to AA, not a “success”. Regularly going to AA, but only 2 years sober, also not a “success”. Rather disingenuous on Dodes’s part if you ask me, especially since Dodes ignored the fact that 1980 study showed that, the more people went to AA, the more likely they would be sober (e.g. 42% of regular AA attenders were sober one year or more in the graph Dodes used to calculate his 5% figure, compared to 16% for people who never went to AA). [2]

The numerator was the alcoholics in a survey both regularly going to AA and with over 2.5 years sober; the denominator was all of the people in the survey who went to at least one AA meeting.

Reading Vaillant poorly

This hasn’t been attributed to Vaillant since about 2015 or so; it is usually described as being a “Harvard study” which supposedly shows a 95% recidivism rate.

The old Orange Papers site claimed that Vaillant's book The Natural History of Alcoholism Revisited showed a 5% success rate, but that is a myth. The old green-papers site from the same era refuted it quite nicely: http://web.archive.org/web/20150329052802/http://green-papers.org/ “95% of patients had relapsed at some time during the study, even though many of these eventually attained sobriety. [...] It's well known that most severe alcoholics only get sober after many relapses, to the extent that relapses can be considered part of the recovery process. So don't pretend that's a failure. [...] And anyway, this was a study of a health network, not AA.”

The numerator was the number of people who never relapsed, not even once. The denominator was all of the people in the study, regardless of whether they went to AA.

Cochrane 2020: 42% success rate

Now that we have gone over three discredited figures, let’s show some more accurate figures for AA’s success rate. The 2020 Cochrane Report on Alcoholics Anonymous shows a 42% success rate for AA-centered therapies, compared to 35% for the other therapies

The numerator here is all of the people who were abstinent from alcohol one year after the survey was started; the denominator is people serious enough about their sobriety to get regular therapy.

Footnotes
 
[1] To be fair here, the triennial survey was initially incorrectly read in Bufe’s 1991 book Cult or Cure (second edition published in 1997; not to be confused with Vaillant’s 2005 paper with the same name) and Fox’s 1993 book Addiction, Change and Choice, both anti-AA polemics published by See Sharp Press, a publisher of books about “anarchism and atheism”, hardly a medical source nor academic journal. McIntire, however, gets the dubious honor of being the first one to publish this erroneous data in an academic journal. McIntire did point out that, if we only count people who stay in AA for 90 days, we get around a 55% one year retention rate. 

[2] Polich, Armor, and Braiker The course of Alcoholism: Four Years after Treatment. Rand 1980. Page 129

Sunday, November 14, 2021

How The Sober Truth came up with its bogus 5% figure

While there hasn’t been any mainstream press criticizing AA’s efficacy recently, I think, while Dodes’s figures are now outdated and discredited in light of Cochrane 2020, it would serve the reader to know the exact source data Dodes used to synthesize his bogus 5% “success rate” figure for Alcoholics Anonymous (AA).

A few years ago, Dr. Thomas Beresford had this to say about Lance Dodes’s alleged 5% success rate for Alcoholics Anonymous:

The Atlantic article’s source [i.e. Lance Dodes’s book] multiplies a 25% AA attendance figure by a 22% abstinence figure to arrive at a 5.5% estimate of AA’s effectiveness. Where do these figures come from? Another second-hand source [Note: This blog post will detail that second-hand source below] that also cites the work of others: two publications from the Rand Corporation that examined, among other things, attempts at controlled drinking and offered little focus on AA’s effectiveness. At 4-year follow-up the Rand group identified patients with at least one year abstinence who had been regular members of AA 18 months after the start of treatment: 42% of the regular AA members were abstinent, not the “calculated” 5.5% figure.

It may benefit the reader to dive in to this more deeply. Here is how Lance Dodes describes AA as supposedly having a 5% success rate:

University of California professor Herbert Fingarette cited two [...] statistics: at eighteen months, 25 percent of people still attended AA, and of those who did attend, 22 percent consistently maintained sobriety. [Reference: H. Fingarette, Heavy Drinking: The Myth of Alcoholism as a Disease (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988)] Taken together, these numbers show that about 5.5 percent of all those who started with AA became sober members.

And here is how the late Herbert Fingarette, back in 1988, described A.A.’s success rate (as cited by Dodes above):

[...] one large-scale study of alcoholics in treatment centers in the U.S. found that 71 percent of their subjects had attended A.A. at some point; but at eighteen-month and subsequent followups only 14 percent to 18 percent were attending. Moreover, the rate of problems was higher for irregular A.A. attenders than for either regular attenders or non-attenders. Among those who were regular A.A. attenders at the time of the initial interview, only 22 percent consistently maintained abstention up through the thirty-month followup interview, and over 33 percent had not only returned to drinking but also showed alcohol-related physical symptoms and life problems.

This paragraph has a single footnote, the 1980 Rand report on alcoholism. The 1980 Rand Report can be readily downloaded. Let’s start of with a summary of a graph on page 154 of that report.

Never attended AA: 23 out of 129 (18%) sober over 6 months.
Some AA attendance: 85 out of 315 (27%) sober over 6 months
Lots of AA attendance: 42 out of 74 (57%)

The Rand report, as skeptical as it is of AA (remember, they were trying to determine if alcoholics could moderately drink again, something we know today is a fool’s errand), admits that the abstinence rate for regular AA attenders is higher than any other group, with a p score of under .05.

The 22% and 18% figures Beresford then Dodes used for the bogus 5.5% figure, are based on table 6.15 at the bottom of page 129 of that 1980 Rand report. This is a four year follow up, with four columns based on 18-month followup AA attendance (never, only in the past, only occasionally, and regular attendance). They also looked at the number of people with over 6 months sober, over one year sober, and with 2.5 years sober. 

As expected, the more people went to AA, the more likely they would be sober. In more detail:

AA attendance6 months+ sober1 year+ sober2.5+ years
Never24%16%11%
Only in past25%19%12%
Occasionally29%19%12%
Regularly45%42%22%

Now, as we can see, overall, not that many people managed to get 2.5 years sober, but those that went to AA were more likely to stay sober. As it turns out, only 18% of the people were regular AA attenders (Dodes, mysteriously, claims the number is 25%); of those, only 22% got sober. 

So, Dodes’s 5.5% number is based on this Rand report, and it is both:

  • The people who regularly went to AA meetings. People who did not regularly attend AA meetings were not considered an “AA success” in Dodes’s book, regardless of whether they actually got sober.
  • Of those people, only the people who did not have one drink for over 2.5 years were considered a success. If someone had a single drink two years ago, but was sober for over a year, regularly attending AA meetings, they were still considered to be not an “AA success”.

By doing everything to minimize the number of people that are an “AA success”, he was able to come up with a really low number for AA success. Indeed, if we make the bar more reasonable, such as one year or more sober, we get an 8% (instead of 4%) success rate, again not counting the people who didn’t regularly attend AA but got sober anyway.

Why did Dodes use a 1980 study based on 1970s numbers in a 2014 book? The numbers in the 1980 study were remarkably low. If we play the same game with the numbers in Moos and Moos 2006, we get a 17% success rate for AA, again not counting everyone who got sober who didn’t regularly go to AA meetings. 

Even if we use this old 1980 study, if we use the numbers on page 128 (not page 129) of the 1980 Rand report, we get a 8% success rate (if only regular attenders count), or a 24% success rate if anyone who has set foot in AA counts. Actually, we get a 57% success rate if we only use the number of people regularly going to AA as our denominator (instead of all the people in the study).

Point blank: The math Dodes used to come up with a 5.5% AA success rate are based on a study that was 34 years old when he wrote the book, even though another similar 8-year-old study was available, and use a kind of math whose goal appears to be to make AA look as bad as possible.

Dodes’s numbers were disingenuous, plain and simple.

As an aside, since that old 1980 Rand report claimed that some AA attendance resulted in worse drinking consequences than no AA attendance, something Fingarette observed, I will address that. Those numbers were based on self-reporting answers. Based on the fact that the studies used in the 2020 Cochrane report on AA do not see worse drinking consequences for people randomly assigned to AA-centered therapies, the most likely reason that old Rand report saw worse consequences is because people who never have gone to AA are more likely to be dishonest about the extent of negative consequences from their drinking. As I have heard countless people say in AA meetings, doctors could not properly treat us because we were so dishonest about our drinking before going to AA.

Friday, September 10, 2021

Some other recent criticism of AA in the press

I have found other criticism of AA in the mainstream press over the last year which I should address here in this blog.

Naltrexone redux

A recent New York Times opinion piece (archive link) brought out the same old tired “AA (or abstinence) doesn’t work but Naltrexone allows alcoholics to drink like gentlemen” chestnut.

While cherry picked studies show remarkably high success rates for Naltrexone, this is offset by other studies which do not replicate those results. Naltrexone, like AA, appears to be effective for a subset of alcoholics, but, as per Cochrane, it only helps about 11% of alcoholics

The most disturbing thing about studies showing Naltrexone showing controlled drinking among alcoholics is that they consistently do not have long term follow-up periods. For example, that New York Times opinion piece links to two different studies which supposedly show alcoholics successfully drinking moderately again. In both cases, the final follow-up is one year after treatment.

As someone who remembers Pendery 1982 all too well, positive results for moderate drinking without long term follow-ups are not very encouraging. Sure, anything someone throws a dead cat, they will hit a study of alcoholism showing alcoholics successfully engaging in “moderate drinking” over the short term, but the few long-term follow-ups I have seen show that moderate drinking is not a long-term solution to chronic alcoholism.

As a point of comparison, the 1990s Project MATCH randomized study showed increased abstinence for people who engaged in AA-centered therapies three years after treatment (as per its data as presented in Cochrane 2020), and Moos and Moos 2006 is a longitudinal study showing that Alcoholics Anonymous keeps alcoholics sober 16 years later.

Another thing: That New York Times opinion piece claims that only 25% of alcoholics will achieve abstinence, but the study it links to supporting that outdated 25% figure doesn’t actually conclude this; it claims a 25% success rate for abstinence, and links to an old article from 2005 using results that are nearly two decades old. More recent figures from Cochrane show a 42% success rate.

Abstinence violation effect

There have been two (open access) different letters (paywall) recently published which make the same criticism of Cochrane 2020: They claim that there is an “abstinence violation effect” where the subjects undergoing AA-based treatment who are not abstinent somehow do worse when they drink again than subjects not undergoing AA-based treatment. In other words, the accusation is that AA may increase abstinence, but overall AA doesn’t improve things for alcoholics, because the alcoholics not abstinent supposedly drink more heavily.

This “abstinence violation effect” is actually a myth, as one of the authors of the 2020 Cochrane review on AA explains. Since this letter is paywalled, I will quote the most important part of that letter here:

while more individuals in AA/TSF achieved continuous abstinence, those who were not completely abstinent did not drink more heavily, drink more frequently or experience more alcohol-related consequences

Point being, AA overall improves things for alcoholics. 42% are straight up abstinent from alcohol a year later, and those who do not achieve abstinence do not, repeat not have worse consequences from their drinking.