The numbers I have seen, for long term sobriety of people who really try the AA program, is about 75%, with most of the remaining 25% showing improvement. I haven't found any numbers more recent than the 1970s where a study says "We looked at this number of alcoholics. This number of people were really serious of the program; of those people, this percent got sober." The 1970s numbers I have seen, from The Natural History of Alcoholism Revisited, are that roughly 75% of those serious about working the program stay sober.
The figures which claim a 5% or 8% or 10% success rate are numbers which include any alcoholic who has been to even one AA meeting and decided not to return; those numbers are not valid, for the same reason we do not judge the success of fitness programs by looking at people who do not exercise, or judge the success of chemotherapy by looking at the people who do not take chemotherapy. Working the AA program is defined as attending meetings once a week or more, getting a sponsor, and working the steps as written in the first 164 pages of the Big Book -- to say AA is a failure because a large percentage of alcoholics refuse to do that (because -- this is based on my own personal experience talking to newcomers after meetings and then calling them up when I don't see them at meetings -- most people who are exposed to AA still want to drink) is downright intellectually dishonest.
So, even with this 75% success rate, what about the other 25%? I think I have found on the web a an example of someone who just does not have a positive reaction to the 12-step program. Now, I could be a circa 1990 AA fanatic and assert that someone like this deserves to drink again because they're too stubborn to accept the God thing. But, since I actually work the program as written in the 164, "love and tolerance of others is [my] code."
What do I suggest for someone like this? First of all, I would like to commend Dick for trying really hard to work the program, and I think there are people out there who just can not have a spiritual experience as described in the Big Book, not even the gradual kind as described in the "Spiritual Experience" appendix. Do I think these people are doomed to an alcoholic death? Not necessarily.
Dick is saying he's trying SMART recovery. He hasn't said, in the comments, whether it is giving him continuous sobriety, but it seems more appealing to him than the traditional AA program. Another option for Dick is to go to AA, but only to agnostic meetings, such as the ones listed here:
http://www.agnosticaanyc.org/worldwide.html
Since I have worked the program as written in the 164, I have learned the principle of "Live and let live." I appreciate Dick's honesty and wish him the utmost in getting and staying sober.
